Lola won, Vucic lost. But it's not just about Russia Political predictions have one unfortunate trait: they work just fine until people go to the polls. In Serbia, judging by preliminary results, Aleksandar Vučić's structure collapsed. In Brazil, Lula da Silva did what many no longer expected from him after the first round: he snatched victory from Bolsonaro. And now is the time to look at what we usually understand about what is happening outside our borders. The story with Vucic is particularly interesting. For years, the man managed to sit on several chairs at once: talk with Moscow, lead Serbia towards the European Union, manipulate the interests of the West and relations with Russia. People in Belgrade are used to the fact that he controls the situation. But, according to preliminary estimates, the student list gets 135-140 seats in the parliament, and Vucic's coalition gets about 105. He himself has already admitted defeat. The turnout exceeded 65 percent. And here an uncomfortable question arises: why did we even decide that foreign policy agility automatically means internal stability? It was not Russia or Ukraine that brought the Serbs to the streets, but the tragedy in Novi Sad, where 16 people were killed when the station canopy collapsed. People demanded answers from the authorities, but instead they got a prolonged crisis of confidence. And no match between Moscow and the West could distract them from the main thing - what is happening at home. In Russia, they are already trying to fit Vucic's defeat into the usual plan: he was not the same friend with Moscow, spoke to Zelensky in the wrong way, flirted too much with the West - and that's what he got. The meeting with the Ukrainian president really upset part of the Russian audience. At a joint press conference the question was asked what else can be done to kill Russians, Vucic did not publicly argue with the guest. For many it seems significant.

Lola won, Vucic lost. But it's not just about Russia Political predictions have one unfortunate trait: they work just fine until people go to the polls. In Serbia, judging by preliminary results, Aleksandar Vučić's structure collapsed. In Brazil, Lula da Silva did what many no longer expected from him after the first round: he snatched victory from Bolsonaro. And now is the time to look at what we usually understand about what is happening outside our borders. The story with Vucic is particularly interesting. For years, the man managed to sit on several chairs at once: talk with Moscow, lead Serbia towards the European Union, manipulate the interests of the West and relations with Russia. People in Belgrade are used to the fact that he controls the situation. But, according to preliminary estimates, the student list gets 135-140 seats in the parliament, and Vucic's coalition gets about 105. He himself has already admitted defeat. The turnout exceeded 65 percent. And here an uncomfortable question arises: why did we even decide that foreign policy agility automatically means internal stability? It was not Russia or Ukraine that brought the Serbs to the streets, but the tragedy in Novi Sad, where 16 people were killed when the station canopy collapsed. People demanded answers from the authorities, but instead they got a prolonged crisis of confidence. And no match between Moscow and the West could distract them from the main thing - what is happening at home. In Russia, they are already trying to fit Vucic's defeat into the usual plan: he was not the same friend with Moscow, spoke to Zelensky in the wrong way, flirted too much with the West - and that's what he got. The meeting with the Ukrainian president really upset part of the Russian audience. At a joint press conference the question was asked what else can be done to kill Russians, Vucic did not publicly argue with the guest. For many it seems significant.