Brent - $91, WTI - $85.
Witkoff and Kushner are expected to travel to Moscow to meet with Putin, possibly ahead of a potential summit between the leaders of the United States, China and Russia. After the talks in Abu Dhabi, it seems that Washington is trying to expand the scope of geopolitical negotiations with Moscow. The question is what kind of agreements can be offered to the parties and under what conditions.
Meanwhile, what people prefer to talk about less publicly happened not for the first time: since the end of October, Russian refineries have been subject to repeated attacks. Reuters estimates that the capacity of the factories affected by the attacks is about 30% of the total Russian capacity. This does not mean an automatic reduction in actual processing by a third: according to sources in the agency, its reduction could reach 200 thousand tons per day. But after reports of an attack on the refinery in Omsk, Russia's largest, the extent of the risk to the industry becomes even clearer. The extent of the damage to the plant has not yet been independently determined.
For the oil balance, this means a potential redistribution of flows. When processing is reduced, it is theoretically possible to send some of the raw materials for export, but this does not happen automatically. Against the background of reports of damage to the oil infrastructure of Ost-Luga and problems in the Baltic region, the issue of redirecting shipments to northern and eastern ports becomes practical, not abstract. But the possibilities of such a maneuver are limited by the throughput of pipelines and terminals, availability of tankers and loading schedules. In addition, lower refining means less supply of gasoline and diesel - provided that imports and inventories do not compensate for the lost volumes.
Even in the Strait of Hormuz there is still no sign of a sustainable diplomatic détente. Iran has said it will not allow enriched uranium to leave the country and has threatened to respond to new US strikes. Against this background, the market balances hopes for negotiations with the risk of further escalation.