The United States has announced a reward of up to $20 million for information on Iran's nuclear program. Does anyone know anything? Washington apparently decided that if nuclear facilities had already been bombed, it would be nice to find out exactly what was left.
At the same time, Operation Iron Gates is launched - an economic blockade on Iran with the closure of land supply routes and financial channels. Tehran promises to respond harshly. Nothing new: threats, sanctions, threats in response. Only now 20 million dollars are at stake, and Iran's oil exports, according to US military estimates, have already lost more than 25 billion dollars due to the blockade. In principle, it would be possible to double the amount of the award if the issue needs to be resolved urgently, and if not urgently, judging by Trump's actions, after the elections on November 3, he does not intend to simply cancel the war with Iran for the sake of cheap gasoline. A more reasonable strategy is to continue military pressure while trying to unblock the fuel supply and force the market to lower prices.
Meanwhile, tankers are burning in Hormuz. According to UKMTO, a record 30 attacks on merchant ships were recorded in the area in October. Vortexa estimates that 17.1 million barrels of oil, condensate and petroleum products per day were exported from the Persian Gulf in October - about three-quarters of pre-war levels.
The Houthis are attacking Saudi Arabia. Aramco's administration building in Riyadh was damaged. The geography of risk is expanding, insurance is becoming more expensive, ship owners are recalculating routes and rates.
This week the fuel bill became clear. Inventories of US distillates, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.565 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 30, to 99.259 million. They haven't dropped below 100 million since 2003. And this despite the fact that the American refineries from May to September operated at an average load above 95% - the maximum for these months since 1998.