Global oil refining volumes are 5% lower than a year ago Following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global oil output fell by 4.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), or 6%, according to Kepler. In the third quarter, it increased by 1.8 million per day, mainly due to the adaptation of the refineries in the region to new trade flows. The largest oil refining capacities in the world belong to the USA, China, Russia and India. The largest declines in refining volumes were observed in countries that were directly affected by disruptions in the supply of crude oil as a result of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. In China, refining volumes fell by 2.1 million bpd in Q2 2026 and by a further 0.8 million bpd in Q3 2026, while in India, South Korea and Japan, oil refining volumes fell by a combined more than 1 million bpd in Q2 2026, before recovering by 8 million bpd in 2026. Despite the increase, crude oil refining volumes in the third quarter of 2026 remained lower by about 5% on average compared to the corresponding period in 2025.

Global oil refining volumes are 5% lower than a year ago Following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global oil output fell by 4.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), or 6%, according to Kepler. In the third quarter, it increased by 1.8 million per day, mainly due to the adaptation of the refineries in the region to new trade flows. The largest oil refining capacities in the world belong to the USA, China, Russia and India. The largest declines in refining volumes were observed in countries that were directly affected by disruptions in the supply of crude oil as a result of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. In China, refining volumes fell by 2.1 million bpd in Q2 2026 and by a further 0.8 million bpd in Q3 2026, while in India, South Korea and Japan, oil refining volumes fell by a combined more than 1 million bpd in Q2 2026, before recovering by 8 million bpd in 2026. Despite the increase, crude oil refining volumes in the third quarter of 2026 remained lower by about 5% on average compared to the corresponding period in 2025.