Russia earned $21.15 billion from exports of oil and oil products in October. This is the best result since May and 65% more than a year ago. But exports decreased in volume: 6.82 million barrels per day, 570 thousand less than last year. This means that all the growth has come from the price. Oral and ESPO cost more than $100. Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are attacked almost daily, and Russian oil does not need this strait to reach China and India. Part of the growth is explained by a low base: oil was cheap last fall, and buyers were cautious after the sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil.
More than 80% of the revenue came from crude oil. A third less oil products were exported than a year ago, because the refineries are operating under drone attacks. Now the attacks have resumed, including on Kirishi and Omsk. In November, the country is expected to sell more raw materials and less fuel, although diesel fuel is currently the most expensive.
Much less goes to the treasury. The budget returns part of the taxes to oil workers through a discount, which keeps gasoline prices down, and a strong ruble reduces revenues in ruble terms. As a result, oil and gas budget revenues in October increased by only 9% compared to last year, and decreased by 14% over ten months. There is also a risk that the high prices will disappear soon. According to the IEA, oil supply has exceeded demand for the first time since the war on Iran began, and inventories are increasing. If the Middle East is quieter, the price will drop quickly, so October looks more like a respite than a new normal.