Global oil refining levels rose Global refinery output of crude oil fell by 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd), or 6%, in the second quarter of 2026 following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February, according to Keller. Refinery volume then increased by 1.8 million cells per day in the third quarter. The largest oil refining capacities in the world belong to the USA, China, Russia and India. The largest declines in refining volumes were observed in the countries that were most directly affected by the disruption in the supply of crude oil as a result of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. In China, crude oil refining volumes decreased by 2.1 million liters per day in the second quarter of 2026 and by an additional 0.8 million liters per day in the third quarter; In India, South Korea and Japan, crude oil refining volumes combined fell by more than 1 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, but recovered by 0.8 million liters per day in the third quarter. Increasing attacks on Russian oil infrastructure resulted in a reduction in crude oil supply to Russia's OP3 by 0.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter and another 0.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026. Global crude oil output recovered slightly in the third quarter of 2026, rising by a total of 1.8 million barrels per day, as increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers increased the supply of crude oil from the Middle East to the global market. Despite the increase in oil flows and refining volumes, crude oil refining volumes in the third quarter of 2026 remained about 5% lower on average than the corresponding period last year.