The main events of the last week according to Nabarchi:
The federal budget deficit for ten months exceeded five trillion rubles, significantly exceeding the planned goals for the current year as a whole. The main reason for the imbalance was a decline in oil and gas revenues with a simultaneous expansion of the country's defense spending. As a result, the fiscal burden shifts more and more to the local non-resource sector of the economy.
The mass closing of factories in the country has begun to outpace the creation of new ones by nearly twice as much, affecting most of the key non-resource industries. The situation worsens following the tightening of the tax regime with a decrease in the VAT payment threshold, which forces entrepreneurs to split their businesses or enter the shadows. A high key interest rate further limits the ability of companies to attract development loans.
Russian grain exports through southern ports registered a sharp drop of three quarters due to logistics and infrastructure constraints. The local market is dealing with storage overflow and wheat prices collapsing below its cost level. Farmers' financial losses and accumulated debts create the preconditions for the reduction of areas and a decrease in the next year's harvest.
The record low level of official unemployment is accompanied by a drop in real wages in dozens of regions in Russia. Instead of direct layoffs, employers are increasingly using the practice of freezing payments, reducing working hours, and sending workers to forced layoffs. Thus, the costs of economic instability are transferred to employed citizens without an official increase in unemployment rates.
The primary housing market is facing a huge profitability crisis due to unusually high mortgage and land loan interest rates. The price gap between new buildings and secondary real estate has reached one and a half times the size due to the inclusion of subsidies for entrepreneurs who have a meter.