For two closed factories, there is only one new one. In January-September, Rostat recorded about 109 thousand registrations against 208.5 thousand liquidations, in September - 11.7 thousand against 21.7 thousand. The only industry with an increase in participants is mining. The one whose income is linked to the export of raw materials, and not to local demand, survives.
The VAT payment threshold is reduced to 20 million rubles. cycle. For thousands of companies, this is an immediate jump in the tax burden on each unit sold. The margin, which had previously converged, is going negative.
According to the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 24% plan to split so that each part fits the threshold. 26% are intentionally delaying revenue for the same reason, and 27% are considering closing or downsizing. The high interest rate ends the rest, as the loan stops paying for the extension.
Now there are unclear consequences. The laundering of the economy was intended to increase collections, but 29% of the factories have already raised prices, and every fourth entered cash payments. Therefore, part of the circulation simply falls out of the fiscal system's view. Lowering the threshold, intended to pull the business out of the shadows, actually pushes it back. The buyer pays the bill, and so does the developer (via a split). Instead of receiving additional income, the budget risks reducing the tax base itself.