Novorossiysk handled 59.6 thousand tons of grain in October 2026. A year ago - 1.7 million. There is no typo. In the first 20 days of October, marine grain exports collapsed by 75% - from 4.515 to 1.135 million tons. Wheat - from 4 to 1 million tons, barley - 5.7 times, up to 61 thousand tons. The number of buyer countries decreased from 29 to 15, exporters - from 38 to 15, wheat exporters - from 46 to 25. Egypt takes three times less, Turkey - almost seven times less. The USDA cut the forecast for Russian wheat exports from 46 to 40 million tons.
Baltica makes up for losses only on paper. Shipping there has increased 11 times - to 875 thousand tons in total across St. Petersburg, Ost-Luga and Vysotsk - but this does not close the southern hole. Arctic routes through Murmansk cost 18-25 dollars more per ton: a batch of 40 thousand tons generates 720 thousand - million dollars in additional costs. Within the country, there is nowhere to put the grain: elevators in the south are 88–91% loaded, the storage deficit is 30–40 million tons, the cost of long-term storage is up to 1,700 rubles/t. The result is a collapse of local prices. Feed wheat decreased by 39.1%, to 7,490 rubles/t, sunflower - by 38.6%. Farmers lose 4,600-5,000 rubles. from each ton of grain and over 15,000 rubles. A ton of sunflowers. A batch of food wheat of 10 thousand tons brings 48.19 million rubles. less than a year ago. The debt of large and medium-sized agricultural enterprises increased by 11% over seven months, to 4.8 trillion rubles.; By September 1, arrears in the agricultural sector reached 68 billion rubles.
The state responded with tools that do not harm the bottleneck. 10 billion rubles. Subsidies for rail transportation and zero export duties until December 31 do not solve the port infrastructure problem - it is simply not in the right place. Interventions for 3 million tons at 11,000–12,000 rubles/t seem generous against the background of market prices of 8,000–8,300 rubles/t, but we are talking about 2% of the crop and 12–13% of the predicted reserves; Small farms will not reach this window due to requirements for the volume and quality of portions. The real score will come later.