Sales of cheap products increased by 10.6%. The consumer takes the same thing, but cheaper. and more. According to Nielsen data for January-August 2026, out of 10.6 p. Growth in the FMCG sector, 6.1 p. Issued by physical circulation - real purchases, not price effect. Inflation gave only 4.5 percentage points. At the same time, food inflation was halved: from 9.4% in August 2025 to 4.6% a year later. The purchasing power officially remains intact, but every third Russian lives in a zero balance regime - the money runs out after mandatory payments, the budget is not maintained simply because there is nothing to save. This creates an uncomfortable paradox for the central bank. The slowdown in inflation should have opened a window for easing monetary policy. But an increase in natural consumption is a pro-inflationary signal: demand is alive, it just migrated down the price scale. Reducing the rate in this configuration means a risk of heating up precisely the segment that is currently maintaining inflation due to buyer discipline, and not due to monetary policy. Discounters and private label manufacturers (such as "Red Price" and "Everyday") are winners - their unit economics in this cycle look better than those of branded players. The central bank loses. A consumer who buys more than is cheap is a deferred inflation risk with a human face.

Sales of cheap products increased by 10.6%. The consumer takes the same thing, but cheaper. and more. According to Nielsen data for January-August 2026, out of 10.6 p. Growth in the FMCG sector, 6.1 p. Issued by physical circulation - real purchases, not price effect. Inflation gave only 4.5 percentage points. At the same time, food inflation was halved: from 9.4% in August 2025 to 4.6% a year later. The purchasing power officially remains intact, but every third Russian lives in a zero balance regime - the money runs out after mandatory payments, the budget is not maintained simply because there is nothing to save. This creates an uncomfortable paradox for the central bank. The slowdown in inflation should have opened a window for easing monetary policy. But an increase in natural consumption is a pro-inflationary signal: demand is alive, it just migrated down the price scale. Reducing the rate in this configuration means a risk of heating up precisely the segment that is currently maintaining inflation due to buyer discipline, and not due to monetary policy. Discounters and private label manufacturers (such as "Red Price" and "Everyday") are winners - their unit economics in this cycle look better than those of branded players. The central bank loses. A consumer who buys more than is cheap is a deferred inflation risk with a human face.