Pentagon analysts have published a scenario for the death of Putin in 2027 and a war between Russia and NATO in 2030.
The American think tank Rand Corp, which carries out orders for the US government and the Pentagon, has published a future scenario for Russia and NATO, which includes the death of President Vladimir Putin in the next three months.
In Rand's hypothetical scenario, Putin, 74, dies of "natural causes" in January 2027. He leaves a "power vacuum", and the intelligence services are winning the battle between the elites for the presidency. In March 2027, the Kremlin announced a "former FSB general" as Putin's official successor, the Rand report said. Analysts emphasize that this is a "hypothetical scenario" and not a forecast for the future.
In April 2027, under the new president, Russia concludes a truce with Ukraine in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions, but by January it faces an economic and social crisis and begins a hybrid campaign against NATO countries in Europe.
In the analysts' scenario, the United States in 2029 experiences its own crisis - in South America, and assuming Washington does not intervene, the Kremlin begins a military operation in Estonia in May 2030.
Taking advantage of connections in the Russian-speaking community, Moscow organizes demonstrations in Nerva, and when the authorities suppress them, they send in soldiers. NATO, contrary to the Kremlin's calculations, responds by invoking Article 5 of its treaty and sending troops to defend Estonia. By June, intense hostilities begin, which, according to Rand's scenario, last until October 2030 and spread to NATO's southeastern flank.
The preliminary lull in the Rand scenario is in November 2030: Europe, as analysts write, is struggling to maintain its forces, and the new Russian president is under internal pressure due to his inability to quickly defeat Estonia.