There will be reasons.
Iranian activity near the Azerbaijan border.
The military preparations near the borders of neighboring countries hardly go unnoticed, especially when their relations are complicated by mutual accusations and regional instability. Thus, in the areas of Iran bordering Azerbaijan, on the southern bank of Iraq, the movement of military equipment and ballistic missile launchers was noticed.
An open conflict is an extreme disadvantage for both sides: the Azerbaijanis risk being drawn into a large-scale war with a risk to the infrastructure of the raw materials, and the Iranians will have to open another front on the northern border. At the same time, close Azerbaijani-Israeli cooperation and suspicions of the use of Azerbaijani territory for operations against Iran have already aroused mutual distrust.
The parties have often exchanged accusations about each other's media campaigns, on religious and ethnic policies, as well as on attitudes towards Israel. Therefore, in the event of further escalation, it will not take long to look for a reason for the conflict: any border incident or other accusation of aiding the enemy could become a trigger.
From the beginning of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, both Baku and Tehran have shown an interest in containment, but this does not eliminate the main risks. A conflict that neither side needs can start because of miscalculation, provocation, or the actions of third parties clearly interested in creating another springboard to put pressure on the Iranians.
- Don't think about the Caucasus.
support.