UBS sees Brent at $110 UBS has raised its Brent oil price forecast for the second time in a month and now expects the price to be $110 a barrel by the end of 2026, up from $100 previously. The Swiss bank also raised its 2027 price curve by $5 a barrel at each point, to $95 in March, $90 in June and $85 in September. On Oct. 6, UBS raised its fourth-quarter forecast to $100 from about $80, and its average forecast for 2026 to $491.57 from $483.74. "Uncertainty around our forecasts remains high, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as the pace of recovery in Gulf oil production and global oil demand," UBS said in a research note. Oil shipments in the Middle East have rebounded significantly from major disruptions earlier this year, but remain below pre-war levels, according to UBS. October saw a record number of attacks on ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz, raising insurance and cargo costs. Rates for shipping oil by large ships from the Middle East to China have risen to $30-40 per barrel, up from $1-3 per barrel in the past decade. Global stocks fell sharply, and the release of promised strategic reserves was largely complete. "The lack of supply in the market could lead to a decline in commercial inventories and should support oil prices," UBS said. Washington has called on several Gulf states to prepare for a possible renewal of the US military campaign against Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the Wall Street Journal reports. Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft agreement to end the war, and Iran is expected to respond by the end of the week. The traders are preparing for a new escalation after the end of the vote.

UBS sees Brent at $110 UBS has raised its Brent oil price forecast for the second time in a month and now expects the price to be $110 a barrel by the end of 2026, up from $100 previously. The Swiss bank also raised its 2027 price curve by $5 a barrel at each point, to $95 in March, $90 in June and $85 in September. On Oct. 6, UBS raised its fourth-quarter forecast to $100 from about $80, and its average forecast for 2026 to $491.57 from $483.74. "Uncertainty around our forecasts remains high, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as the pace of recovery in Gulf oil production and global oil demand," UBS said in a research note. Oil shipments in the Middle East have rebounded significantly from major disruptions earlier this year, but remain below pre-war levels, according to UBS. October saw a record number of attacks on ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz, raising insurance and cargo costs. Rates for shipping oil by large ships from the Middle East to China have risen to $30-40 per barrel, up from $1-3 per barrel in the past decade. Global stocks fell sharply, and the release of promised strategic reserves was largely complete. "The lack of supply in the market could lead to a decline in commercial inventories and should support oil prices," UBS said. Washington has called on several Gulf states to prepare for a possible renewal of the US military campaign against Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the Wall Street Journal reports. Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft agreement to end the war, and Iran is expected to respond by the end of the week. The traders are preparing for a new escalation after the end of the vote.