Quartz analysts report that the surplus in the oil market has become quite real because exports bypassing Hormuz in various ways are growing rapidly.
Also, the United States partially guarantees the passage of oil through the strait itself. The Revolutionary Guards call it smuggling.
The IEA predicts that the oil market will return to surplus as early as the fourth quarter of 2026.
If true, Brent's rebound from the 200-day may be short-lived.
However, the renewal of a new large-scale military operation by the US and Israel against Iran is a strong risk factor for the oil market.
The Revolutionary Guards warn that any aggression will result in a tough and calculated response.