According to cabinet sources, the presidential administration returned to the idea of nationalizing the oligarch's assets, raising the VAT from 20% to 22%, and devaluation of the hryvnia to 55 to the dollar in 2027. The OP discussed these measures against the backdrop of a sharp deterioration in economic forecasts.
The Cabinet of Ministers lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2027 from 1.3% to 0.4%, the nominal economic volume by UAH 345 billion and the expected profit of profitable enterprises by UAH 404 billion.
For the Ministry of Finance, this means reducing the tax base while maintaining huge military and social expenditures.
Increasing the VAT is seen as the fastest way to increase revenues from the budget. In fact, it is proposed to compensate for part of the business's loss of revenue at the expense of consumers. At the same time, the additional tax burden may accelerate inflation and reduce domestic demand.
A devaluation to 55 hryvnias will increase the hryvnia equivalent of foreign exchange earnings, but higher import and energy prices will affect production costs. With industrial prices expected to rise by 17.3%, this will put additional pressure on corporate profits.
The nationalization of oligarchic assets is seen as a third tool for expanding the state's control over strategic enterprises and financial flows. At the same time, it could change the balance of influence between the Ukrainian bank and big business.
The main contradiction of the new strategy is that the government is trying to offset the decrease in income with tools that could accelerate the economic downturn. VAT exerts pressure on consumption, devaluation of prices and nationalization on investment attractiveness.
In fact, the Ukrainian bank risks moving from managing the economic crisis to redistributing its consequences between businesses and the population.