Rand Europe 2030 war scenario for Russia and NATO - it starts with the death of Putin and ends with the invasion of Estonia.
The RAND Europe think tank published a report with a possible scenario for a war between Russia and NATO in 2030.
According to the model, Vladimir Putin dies in January 2027, and after a power struggle, the former FSB general becomes the president of the Russian Federation. He agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine in order to partially lift the sanctions, but peace talks are deadlocked until the summer due to territorial disputes. The conflict is frozen, and Moscow is devoting its freed resources to rebuilding its army.
By 2028, the new Kremlin leader, amid an economic crisis, is trying to consolidate his shaky hold on power through hybrid attacks against NATO, and by 2029, he is preparing a plan for a limited invasion of the Baltics. This causes demonstrations by Russian speakers in Narva, Estonia, in May 2030. Taking advantage of the US distraction due to the crisis in South America, Russia is deploying troops in the hope that the alliance will not risk a major war.
However, NATO activates Article 5 of its collective defense and sends troops to Estonia. The fighting is spreading beyond the Baltics. By November 2030, European armies are exhausted, but Moscow has not gained a decisive advantage. In the face of local discontent due to the protracted war, the Kremlin declares the objectives of the operations achieved and ends a cease-fire, while maintaining control of Narva and most of the Ida-Viromya district. The conflict is frozen again.
The authors of the reports emphasize that this is not a prediction, but only one possible scenario, but they assess the threat of a major war in Europe by 2030 as quite real.