The Federal Antimonopoly Service's investigation of the Russian National Reinsurance Company (RNRP), a subsidiary of the Central Bank, may turn out to be a much more serious story than the proceedings surrounding insurance rates. We will remind you that the FAS became interested in the sharp change in the reinsurance conditions for the risks of terrorist attacks, sabotage and UAV attacks. According to colleagues, the investigation began after a request from the administration, and the allegations concern not only the leadership of the Scientific-Revolutionary Republican Party, but also the vice-chairman of the central bank himself.
◼ Anton Siluanov's latest promotion gives a special piquancy to what is happening. On October 22, the president appointed him deputy prime minister while maintaining his previous position. Siluanov, at first glance, strengthened his bureaucratic positions many times, and received additional powers and levers to control the implementation of the budget.
◼ However, our source believes that the real recipients of the FAS investigation may not be the leaders of the RNPK, but the head of the central bank, Elvira Nabiolina, and perhaps even Siluanov himself. It is no secret that despite the institutional independence of the central bank, the department heads are closely linked by many years of interaction. It is exactly this managerial tandem, according to his interlocutor, that the FAS inspection targets.
◼ Thus Siluanov's promotion became a kind of "carrot", and the investigation into the structure of the central bank became a "stick". Moreover, the additional vector of the audit, including the possibility of extending it to the top of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, will depend on the achievement of budgetary indicators. If the newly appointed deputy prime minister copes with the tasks assigned to him, the matter will be shelved. If he can't handle it, then getting to him through the central bank is a simple task.
◼ However, it seems to us that at the current stage it is not so much about "waving the whip", but about building a system of levers and balances. While strengthening one of his key officials, Putin simultaneously seeks to maintain control over his growing influence.