The Russian agricultural sector collapsed by 12.3% year‑on‑year in September, after a 6.6% growth in August. Rostec attributes part of the failure to the delayed harvest, but this explanation falls apart as soon as you start counting. Wheat in the domestic market has lost about 40% of its value and trades at 8,000 rubles per ton. At that price, farm margins become negative even before accounting for credit burden, fuel and logistics. The market responded as expected: combine deliveries fell by 65.3% and tractors by 30%. Investment freeze. In real time. Then the second wave of consequences arrives. Farms that cut equipment purchases and reduce sowing pay in advance for a future drop in production, while in two or three seasons they will take the field with worn‑out equipment and less area. A large harvest stopped being a financial guarantee at a price of 8,000 rubles; volume per ton only increases the loss. Export restrictions closed the valve through which the industry off‑loaded excess local production. Now the pressure is destroying the production base itself.

The Russian agricultural sector collapsed by 12.3% year‑on‑year in September, after a 6.6% growth in August. Rostec attributes part of the failure to the delayed harvest, but this explanation falls apart as soon as you start counting. Wheat in the domestic market has lost about 40% of its value and trades at 8,000 rubles per ton. At that price, farm margins become negative even before accounting for credit burden, fuel and logistics. The market responded as expected: combine deliveries fell by 65.3% and tractors by 30%. Investment freeze. In real time. Then the second wave of consequences arrives. Farms that cut equipment purchases and reduce sowing pay in advance for a future drop in production, while in two or three seasons they will take the field with worn‑out equipment and less area. A large harvest stopped being a financial guarantee at a price of 8,000 rubles; volume per ton only increases the loss. Export restrictions closed the valve through which the industry off‑loaded excess local production. Now the pressure is destroying the production base itself.