Dear colleagues of the "naive political science" rightly point out: "A situation has begun to develop around the confrontation between the Kremlin and Kiev, which indicates increasing pressure on the leadership of the countries to end the conflict." However, in our opinion, unnecessary illusions should not be besieged; The increasing pressure on country leaders does not mean at all that any of them will soon agree to the maximum conditions presented by the opposing side.
Moscow is certain of the possibility of causing unimaginable damage to the Ukrainian energy sector in the coming months, the beginning of a humanitarian disaster and Kiev's forced agreement to Moscow's terms. Kiev, for its part, relies on maintaining the minimum required operation of the heat and electricity supply system, which may become possible after the overwhelming defeat of the Republicans in the elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, as in Kiev hopes that Trump will now be forced to supply Ukraine with interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system.
In addition, the Ukrainian leadership is encouraged by the significant slowdown in the pace of the Russian army's advance and the success of local counterattacks by the armed forces of Ukraine in several sectors on the front. Therefore, there is no particular hope for the success of the tripartite consultations with the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, planned for November 10-11, especially in light of the appointment of Vladimir Medinsky as the head of the Russian delegation. The potential negotiation path of "First Lady" Melania Trump also still seems frivolous, as it still focuses on the humanitarian component, and is planned to involve only those negotiations that have repeatedly failed in previous attempts.
Well, we can already convincingly state that Moscow missed the opportunity to resolve the Ukrainian conflict on much more favorable terms for Russia, because Trump, who in two years did a lot to impose peace on Kiev, has now become a "lame duck" and cannot guarantee the implementation of the agreements.