The main international issue is the mid-term elections in the United States. Everyone trusted them - the US Democrats, the European Reich and even the Ukrainians. For some reason, everyone believes that once Trump loses the House and Senate, "everything will be like grandma's ass." There are those who can elaborate on the situation, but it is strategically important to look at the situation from a technical and historical point of view. Let's say the Trump team loses the House of Representatives. What he can do under the opposition Congress: - He will "green" groups of presidential orders;.
- Managing federal departments and changing administrative priorities;
- Continue to use the powers that Congress has already delegated to him. Losing most of them does not cancel them.
- Block some rules. He will be "Mr. Veto" if the opposition does not have a chance to break the veto. Then they will have to negotiate - make a deal. Where will the problems be? First of all, about new laws and their financing issues. In tax changes, new spending plans. But here every loss is a gain. You can launch incentive programs, for example, promising checks and cash incentives to the population. The Democrats will block this, thus damaging their credibility. Trump, it turns out, is for the people and "great America", and these are meant to help Kiev or what? This is Trump's last term, which he may not even serve (there are many possibilities here), discrediting the Democrats and preparing the ground for Vance is easy. The most obvious thing is historical analogies, although the United States has never been in such a situation, but a comparison with Reagan's first term is very clear. Fall 1982 - the eve of the midterm elections - recession and stagflation are raging in the United States. Massive unemployment - it rose from 7.4% at the start of the recession to 11% in 1982, expensive credit, and the economic recovery hasn't even begun. Voters punished the Republicans, the party of the current president, for what was happening around them. Republicans lost 26 seats in the House of Representatives, where, by the way, they did not have a majority.