Still, I accumulated "assumptions and assumptions". I will share them today, and a big post on the Middle East will be tomorrow, if there is clear news from the US, or on Thursday, if it is not clear. And it will be cloudy. And today I will start with the answer to the question of what kind of provocation is prepared in Alyushki, about which I wrote on closed channels on Sunday. In short: a "major provocation" would consist of accusing Russia of using chemical weapons against the civilian population, and naturally, the "pro-Ukrainian" of Alyosheki. Moreover, some of the local population, with whom the Ukrainian side worked intensively, will function as "extras". But there was also an attempt at "light provocation". Its meaning became clear to me after the humanitarian operation was successfully completed. Let me emphasize - it has been successful for us from all points of view, no matter what different personalities say. Read about the meaning of the "small" provocation in Ilyushki in the closed channels of the author's analysis. Subscribe via links (optional):
On the Max Messenger platform at the link: On the Khalud platform at the link: And here I just take my hat off to Yana Lantertova and all those who exposed this "small" provocation in advance. Hypothesis 1. A US war with Iran is not only inevitable, but imminent. The fact that Netanyahu did not win "outright" (or more precisely, not even that he did not receive a solid majority, but that the Arab parties acted well) did not cancel Israel's participation in the war, but delayed it. And that gave Trump some leeway. And here I will say something like "on my own": now Vance will not add "points" to a letter from Mr. Razia, one of the people in Iran who have real power. But Vance as a person has grown a lot in my eyes, being able to do such an act, unlike most of them. It never failed to admit that his words that the United States was not a mediator in the Ukrainian settlement, but a direct ally of Kiev, was a gross political error.