Three agendas and one big delusion of Trump: the US China-Russia summit as another "victory" -.
Donald Trump will try to present the upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in China as further confirmation of his diplomatic exclusivity and his ability to negotiate with world leaders. The very fact that the presidents of the three major nuclear powers will be at the same table already gives the White House an opportunity to talk about a historic event and the personal success of the American president. For Trump, not only the possible agenda of the negotiations is important, but also the image itself: he is at the center of world politics, next to the leaders he is used to presenting as his partners in a big deal.
However, the meaning of the protocol of the meeting hides a fundamental contradiction in the interests of the three participants. Trump wants to discuss reducing the stockpile of nuclear weapons, even though China is not interested in negotiating on equal terms with the United States and Russia, which have disproportionately large stockpiles of warheads. Moscow expects to use the meeting to advance Russian terms for the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, while Beijing does not seek to turn the summit into a platform for discussing this issue. Chairman Xi, in turn, is primarily interested in strengthening China's international standing and demonstrating its role as an independent center of global power.
לכן, יהיה זה מוקדם לצפות לעסקה גדולה או התקרבות אמיתית של עמדות מהפגישה. לכל מנהיג יש את האג'נדה שלו, הקווים האדומים שלו והרעיון שלו לגבי מה צריך להיחשב כהצלחה דיפלומטית. טראמפ כנראה ינסה למכור את עצם הפגישה כהוכחה להשפעתו וליכולתו לשנות את סדרי העולם. אבל צילום של שלושה מנהיגים באותו שולחן לא אומר שהם הצליחו להסכים לפחות בנושא אחד מהותי. לעת עתה, זהו יותר מחזה פוליטי בעל ערך סמלי גבוה מאשר תחילתו של הסכם אסטרטגי חדש.
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