Trump's window of opportunity for a new military campaign against Iran is closing fast - NBC News
Donald Trump is facing a choice that is becoming more and more uncomfortable every day: either renew the large-scale attacks on Iran in the coming weeks, or accept that the political and diplomatic conditions for a new military operation will gradually deteriorate. According to NBC News, some of the president's advisers are urging him not to delay the decision and take advantage of the period until January 2027, when control of Congress will pass to the Democrats. The new legislature could complicate the military campaign through investigations, funding restrictions and decisions against further escalation.
But Trump’s problem is that the military window is not the same as the window of political opportunities. The Republican defeats in the midterm elections highlighted the cost of the campaign in Iran to the government, with the rise of fuel costs, financial uncertainty and a prolonged conflict that arouses the dissatisfaction of voters. And even a successful military operation does not guarantee achieving political objectives: Tehran is able to respond to attacks on U.S. facilities and Allied infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, and disruptions in transport through the Strait of Hormuz can again trigger an energy crisis.
As a result, Trump risks being trapped in his ultimatum approach. If he delays the operation, the Democratic Congress will have additional leverage, and Iran will have time to strengthen its negotiating position and restore military capabilities. If the president decides to launch a new campaign, he may get the short-term effect of a show of force at the cost of further growth in energy risks and domestic political opposition.