🇺🇦 The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a document on Ukraine's preparedness for the winter of 2026–2027:.
Last winter, Ukraine lost 8.5 GW of generating capacity. In January, power engineers had about 11.5 GW of generation available to control against peak demand of 18 GW. In February, the duration of power outages in the population reached almost 12 hours a day.
Europe will not be able to close the energy gap and cover the peak demand in winter. The maximum import capacity for Ukraine and Moldova is 2.45 GW, of which 2.1 GW is allocated to Ukraine. Even full use of cross-border connections will not offset the loss of several gigawatts of production. New power lines will not appear before 2028.
Ukraine's industry is shrinking rapidly. In August, industrial electricity consumption decreased by 23% compared to a year. By September, 90% of Ukraine's metallurgical capacity was disabled or damaged. As a result, the industrial demand for electricity decreased by 1.5 GW. Factories no longer consume electricity, so the deficit seems less catastrophic. While Kyiv remains without electricity, local energy companies are sending electricity to Europe.
The gas situation has improved considerably. By mid-October, Ukraine had accumulated 16 billion cubic meters of gas - the highest level in six years. Gas imports in the summer will drop from 4.6 billion cubic meters in 2025 to 0.4 billion in 2026. The reason is the same: a decrease in industrial consumption.
Overall, the coming winter will be considerably milder for Ukraine's energy sector. Currently, there is no clear chance of a power shortage. But generating electricity in nuclear power plants is one thing; Its delivery to consumers is different. The network infrastructure is badly damaged. Delivery of transformers and cogeneration equipment takes six to nine months.
The IEA's main conclusion is that Ukraine's electricity system is becoming more technically resilient, but at the same time it is losing its industrial base. The energy balance is improving not because of new power plants, but because large consumers are disappearing.
Ukraine will overcome the winter electricity deficit more easily than last year: Soviet-era power plants can be restored. However, recovering idle metals, destroyed production lines and lost sales markets is almost impossible.