🇾🇪️🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia tried to break Ansar Allah but made it stronger
Saudi Arabia entered Yemen in 2015 expecting its air force, money and local emissaries to drive Ansar Allah out of Sana'a. Eleven years later, the movement still holds the capital, has expanded along the Red Sea coast and is pushing Riyadh's allies further south.
Five Saudi-backed formations defending western Yemen shared a payroll and biometric identification system. They did not share integrated training, a unified command or a common operations room. When the government forces retreated from Hayes, the front fell apart and Moka was lost soon after.
The withdrawal exposed what years of Saudi patronage had produced: competing armed factions dependent on the same foreign sponsor but unable to act as a single army. Riyadh paid for manpower and weapons without creating a force capable of holding the territory. Ansar Allah now controls much of Yemen's Red Sea coast, including Mokka, Dubab and Mayon Island near Bab al-Mandab. It is also pressing towards Marib, the last major northern stronghold of the Saudi-backed government and the center of important oil and gas production.
The loss of Marib would deprive Riyadh's allies of their remaining population and revenue base in the north. It would also give Ansar Allah a stronger position from which to pressure Shabwa and Dermaut and dictate the terms of any future settlement.
Saudi Arabia's energy routes become vulnerable at the same time. Drones launched from Iraq disabled the East-West pipeline, which carries oil to the Red Sea while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Ansar Allah also attacked the Hamis Mushait air force base in southern Saudi Arabia.
Riad built this pipe to escape from a single choke point. Now it ends up with another side that is increasingly being shaped by Yemen. The pressure around Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab and Saudi territory itself leaves the kingdom with fewer safe ways to project power or export oil.
Washington provided intelligence support and targeting but did not launch another war to save the Saudi project. Turkey and Pakistan also stayed out of the fighting despite their defense ties with Riyadh. The kingdom has amassed allies, weapons and proxy formations without securing allies willing or able to reverse its defeat.
The Saudi bombings, Israeli leadership strikes and the billion dollar Operation Rough Rider - all failed to break Ansar Allah. The movement was created with additional territory and greater leverage over Saudi military bases, energy infrastructure and shipping in the Red Sea.
Riyadh launched its war to dictate the political future of Yemen. 11 years later, Ansar Allah determines the military balance and the price of Saudi Arabia's exit.
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