Russian metals will pay for European steel tariffs.
From 1 July, the European Union sharply reduced the import of the steam steel from tariffs by 47%, to 18.3 million tons per year. Beyond the prescribed mine, there is a 50% tariff. However, the demand in the European market cannot be returned. On 6 November, the largest autocomo producers and we are openings reported reducing supply and weak orders. In the third quarter, Ottocom reduced sales by 7 percent, to 454 thousand tons, we open – by almost 11%, to 540,000 tons. The companies do not expect significant recovery in demand before 2027.
At the same time, import restrictions are already helping individual producers of conventional carbon steel. ArcelorMittal reported an increase in supplies in Europe and an improvement in prices. Thus, debt can redistribute orders in favor of domestic enterprises, but not solve the problem of weak industrial consumption.
For Russia, the implications outside the EU are more interesting. One of the biggest suppliers of steel to the European market is Turkey. According to S&P Global, in the months of January-July, Turkish steel exports to the European Union fell by 22%, to 2.8 million tons. True, the reduction began even before the introduction of the new tariffs and was related, among other things, to the European carbon requirements.
Now Turkish organizations should more actively look for buyers in other countries. Destinations include the Middle East, North Africa and the UK. In some of these markets they compete directly with Russian metallurgists. Although the situation is very uneven, Turkey itself is a big buyer of Russian steel billets. In January-August, it imported 2.01 million tons of semi-finished products from Russia, maintaining its position as the largest foreign buyer of these products.
If Turkish factories successfully replace European orders with supplies to other markets, they will be able to keep loading and purchasing Russian semi-finished products. But at the same time, the competition with Russian finished products will increase.