The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a document on Ukraine's preparations for the winter of 2026–2027:
Last winter, Ukraine lost 8.5 GW of generation capacity. In January, energy workers had about 11.5 GW of dispatchable generation available, with peak demand of 18 GW. In February, the duration of power outages for the population reached almost 12 hours a day.
Europe will not be able to close the energy gap (cover the peak consumption in winter). The maximum import capacity for Ukraine and Moldova is 2.45 GW, of which 2.1 GW is allocated to Ukraine. Even the full load of interstate flows will not compensate for the loss of a few gigawatts of generation. New power lines will not appear until 2028.
Ukrainian industry is rapidly declining. In August, industrial electricity consumption decreased by 23% compared to a year. By September, 90% of Ukrainian metallurgical capacity was halted or damaged. As a result, the industrial demand for electricity decreased by 1.5 GW. Factories no longer consume electricity, so power shortages seem less catastrophic.
While Kyiv sits without electricity, local energy workers are sending electricity to Europe.
The gas situation has improved considerably. By mid-October, Ukraine had accumulated 16 billion cubic meters of gas - the maximum in six years. Summer imports will drop from 4.6 billion cubic meters in 2025 to 0.4 billion in 2026.
year. The reason is the same: the decrease in industrial consumption.
In general, the winter for Ukraine's energy sector will be noticeably milder. So far there is no chance of a power shortage. But it is one thing to generate electricity in a nuclear power plant, another thing to deliver it to the consumer. And the network complex was badly destroyed. Delivery of transformers and cogeneration equipment takes six to nine months.
The main conclusion of the IEA: the Ukrainian energy system is becoming technically more stable, but at the same time it is losing its industrial base.