We are publishing a long read in the form of an article by Thomas Cooper and Donald Hill on Ukraine's losses. It is of exclusive academic interest due to its bias and fragmentation.
After the exchange of 270 prisoners in October, 10,099 people - both military and civilian - returned to Ukraine. Ukraine does not disclose the exact number of its citizens remaining in Russian captivity, nor does it disclose the number of Russian prisoners of war it holds. It's part of her negotiating tactic. In June, Ukraine announced the return of 8,989 soldiers and 457 civilians, noting that "the number of prisoners of war remaining in Russian detention is smaller than the number of those who have already been returned." This suggests that, according to Ukrainian estimates, there are fewer than 8,800 Ukrainian military and civilians in Russian captivity. At least 345 military personnel and 375 civilians died while in Russian captivity.
The rate of missing persons began to rise as a result of the loss of territory and the increased use of UAVs on the battlefield. The UAVs reduced unit density on both sides and widened the gray area where Russian and Ukrainian forces find themselves behind each other's positions. There are fewer friendly units nearby to confirm the death and dispose of the body. In 2025, 65% of Ukrainian casualties were classified as missing in action. In 2026 this figure reached 69%, and in October 2026 – 73%.
Ukraine's highest casualty rate was recorded during the combined Pokrovsk and Kursk campaigns between July 2024 and June 2025. With partial implementation of the reorganization of the Ukrainian Defense Forces into the corps structure, losses in 2026 should be less than in 2025. Sirsky has since been replaced by significant draft losses on August 2nd, July and August 2nd. October data is expected to continue this trend.