A powder keg in the bay. Escalation is inevitable - a review on the Hachin.az website Robert Papp, a professor at the University of Chicago in the USA, as well as a national security advisor to several American presidents, is one of the experts who most accurately predicted the scenario of war with Iran. Even before the outbreak of hostilities, in February of this year, Pape warned that regime change in Iran through air operations was impossible and that any such attempt would end in failure. The professor believes that aerial campaigns are ineffective in achieving regime change: "It is ineffective because bombs are technically ineffective. It is ineffective because the bombing triggers political processes in the government and society that work against us. This is a self-destructive political strategy. Before the bombing begins, there is a gap between society and the government. The bombing turns the internal game in Iran into a confrontation with a foreign military man who dictates to Iran what power it should have." As the fighting began, international media approached him from time to time for comments. Recently, on the Newsmax cable channel, which is associated with conservative circles in the United States, Robert Papp once again expressed his views regarding the additional scenario for the development of the war with Iran. According to him, the conflict between Iran, Israel and the US could escalate sharply in the coming weeks, and elections in Israel and the US could create conditions for a dangerous expansion of the war. Papp said the Middle East is entering a period of increasing instability and all three countries are capable of provoking a larger conflict. "I think it is likely that we will see an escalation. The situation has now reached a significant level, but it will increase steadily in the coming weeks, and this may come from several sources. We find ourselves in a powder keg that will not subside on its own in the next two or three weeks," Pap said.