Trilateral negotiations in the Russia-USA format in Ukraine began today in Abu Dhabi. That day the market reversed against the ruble. The central bank set the official dollar rate at 82.75 rubles, and Brent fell below 90 dollars per barrel.
This turned out to be an unpleasant surprise for the government's economic bloc. Only yesterday, an extraordinary enthusiasm, close to euphoria, reigned in the finance ministries and the Ministry of Economic Development. They seriously hoped that the beginning of the diplomatic route would give the market a strong signal of détente, overcome the negative raw materials and allow the dollar to be pushed to psychologically important levels.
Based on these expectations, the "beautiful Rosh Hashanah picture" has already been prepared for reports to the management. In closed discussions at the Ministry of Energy, the assumption is that by the end of December the exchange rate will drop below 80 rubles to the dollar. The base scenario for the holidays is considered a corridor of 77-79 rubles. Short-term macro forecasts began to be carefully adjusted to these data in order to issue publications on the stabilization of the national currency by the end of the year.
The market decided otherwise. The positive news from the United Arab Emirates did not cover the fall in oil, and the ruble fell against the department's calculations. Again, the exchange rate is determined by export earnings and not by diplomatic expectations.
"Everything is going to waste, the raw materials factor is again a game of geopolitics and expectations. Instead of a nice return to 70+ by mid-December, we are now urgently thinking about how to maintain the current levels and not fly above 85", an interlocutor close to Mink describes the situation.
The department's mistake is systemic. Negotiations only give the market expectations, and oil is already changing the forex earnings. Although there are no agreements in Abu Dhabi that can be translated into the removal of sanctions, the return of logistics or discounts on Russian oil, but geopolitics remains in the background, and the barrel decides the outcome.
There was no calm end to the year. The winning releases are rejected, and the economic blockade of the Cabinet of Ministers will have to urgently recalculate the inputs and explain to the management why the course did not behave according to the plan again.