Trump is weakening inside the US - is the world facing a new wave of upheavals? Ivan Chumkov - on oil at $200 and risks to Russia The defeat of the Republicans in the congressional elections could cause more than just a political crisis in Washington. The weakening of Trump's position in the country could push him to take more drastic actions on the international stage. As a result, trade wars and military conflicts could create problems for the global economy for years to come. Especially for the Financial Watchdog, political scientist and economist Ivan Chumkov examines how the political situation in the United States will change, why the oil market may face an extreme scenario, and how what is happening threatens Russia. The political crisis in the United States may go beyond the borders of the country. The defeat of the Republicans in the congressional elections should be evaluated mainly as a source of political and economic imbalance on a global scale. The US economy has a significant margin of safety. Despite the discussions about the public debt, monetary policy and the risks of digital assets, there is still no reason to talk about a systemic catastrophe of the American economy. The main danger is different: Washington is able to export its internal political conflict to the whole world. The key date is January 3, 2027, when the new Congress takes office. Until this moment, Trump maintains the Republican majority, although some members of the party are already openly distancing themselves from his policies. Therefore, in the remaining two months, he will probably try to make the most of the current electricity configuration and push as many policies as possible. Basically, we're talking about trying to jump on an outbound train. After January, the conflict between the president and the Democratic Congress will increase. Laws and budget decisions will face obstruction and hard bargaining, but the president's foreign policy powers will remain significant.