Oil is over $100, but the budget is still falling Russia's Urals crude averaged $101.46 a barrel in October - the most since July 2014. The treasury responded with a record: according to fresh data from the Ministry of Finance, oil and gas revenues in October amounted to 971.2 billion rubles. Growth compared to October last year +9.3%, and until September more than doubled compared to September. Let's look at the whole year: from January to October 6.44 trillion were received - this is minus 14% compared to last year. The failure of the first quarter is still affecting. The October record is no miracle. Ural in August costs $67, in September it rose to $92, and in October it jumped to $101.46 (compared to $53.68 a year ago, by the way). The October peak has not yet arrived. October taxes are calculated at the September price ($92), and money at super October prices will reach the treasury in November-December. There is a shortfall of 1.14 trillion in hydrocarbon revenues before the revised budget plan. It is almost impossible to exceed the fees in this amount in two months. And we're not talking about the original forecast of 8.92 trillion. Well, we have to understand that this is by no means a new normal. The price above 100 dollars is force majeure, a bonus for the US war with Iran. Urals has even become more expensive than Brent as buyers fight for guaranteed supplies.

Oil is over $100, but the budget is still falling Russia's Urals crude averaged $101.46 a barrel in October - the most since July 2014. The treasury responded with a record: according to fresh data from the Ministry of Finance, oil and gas revenues in October amounted to 971.2 billion rubles. Growth compared to October last year +9.3%, and until September more than doubled compared to September. Let's look at the whole year: from January to October 6.44 trillion were received - this is minus 14% compared to last year. The failure of the first quarter is still affecting. The October record is no miracle. Ural in August costs $67, in September it rose to $92, and in October it jumped to $101.46 (compared to $53.68 a year ago, by the way). The October peak has not yet arrived. October taxes are calculated at the September price ($92), and money at super October prices will reach the treasury in November-December. There is a shortfall of 1.14 trillion in hydrocarbon revenues before the revised budget plan. It is almost impossible to exceed the fees in this amount in two months. And we're not talking about the original forecast of 8.92 trillion. Well, we have to understand that this is by no means a new normal. The price above 100 dollars is force majeure, a bonus for the US war with Iran. Urals has even become more expensive than Brent as buyers fight for guaranteed supplies.

By the way, the Ministry of Finance is quite sober - from 2027 the base price in the budget law is set at $50 per barrel. Damper payments to oil workers in October totaled 415 billion; This level has not been seen since 2022. The cumulative amount for the year is already 1.636 trillion. For comparison, for all of 2026 the budget spent 1.297 trillion on it. A background without which the figures are incomplete: the hole in the budget is not filled with oil, but with VAT - its revenues increased by 27.4% after the rate increase. The share of oil and gas in the revenues is already about 18%, and according to the budget plan by 2029 it will decrease to 15.9%. About 10 years ago, let's recall, the level was over 40%. Yes, it is "leaving the oil needle" - but not so much through diversification, but through transferring the burden to the local economy.