The Moscow Stock Exchange does not believe in words. The attempt to take advantage of the promise of peace does not work as before - the ceiling on verbal investment is now a support. Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, announced that the US will hold working talks between Russia and Ukraine on November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi. The Americans will act as mediators. The agenda includes security guarantees after the war, de-escalation, humanitarian issues and other steps towards ending the conflict. At the same time, American negotiators will meet in Brussels with representatives of France, Germany, Great Britain, the European Union and NATO to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, a model for its recovery and Europe's future security architecture.
It is important to remember that these are still working under negotiation. In such cases, the market used to trade actively in hopes of peace. But the trend was broken. What has already been committed? Russian stocks, to remind you, were at a fever pitch the day before. On November 2, the Moscow Stock Exchange Index rose above 2527 for the first time, and then collapsed to 2455 - against the background of a sharp drop in oil and profit taking.
Today, after Witkoff announced the dates, the index recovered by about 0.5%, to 2,467 points. Brent also recovered a little from the collapse and traded around $105-106 per barrel. This seemed to be a confirmation of the old psychological model: first, investors buy rumours, then take profits, then again buy some of the confirmed speculation.
But against the background of the message that the Russian delegation will be headed by Vladimir Medinsky, the market fell again. And yet, now the market has a natural support level in the area of 2420-2430 points. To return to sustainable optimism, the index needs to consolidate above 2500. Our forecast is that until November 10-11 the market will remain nervous and move in this corridor.