Early November - the ruble will have to cope without the tax sales record on October 29, the official dollar rate was 80.87 rubles. Our baseline scenario for November 2-6 is a weaker ruble compared to the end of the tax period, unless new strong factors emerge in its favor. The basis for this assessment is the change in demand and supply of the currency after October 28. Exporters need rubles before paying taxes, and they cover some of this need by selling foreign currency earnings. After the main payment date, this support may decrease. Analysts also point to this effect in a Kommersant review on October 28. At the same time, purchases of foreign exchange and gold according to the budget rule continue until November 6. The volume announced by the Ministry of Finance is 12.7 billion rubles per day before taking into account the corrective actions of the central bank. This maintains the demand for the currency even after the tax period. The ruble remains supported at a high rate of 14% per year. Savings in rubles earns interest, and expensive loans restrain spending, including on imports. Therefore, the end of tax payments in itself does not mean a sharp jump in the dollar. If export and sales profits remain high, the ruble may hold its ground. If the currency supply decreases and importer purchases increase, weakening will become more likely. Keep in mind that new foreign policy events can quickly change both scenarios. For those who have payments in dollars at the beginning of November, the budget sensitivity is as follows. For every $1000, a 1₽ increase in the exchange rate adds 1000₽ to expenses, excluding commissions. It is this amount that will have to be found in addition if the ruble weakens.

Early November - the ruble will have to cope without the tax sales record on October 29, the official dollar rate was 80.87 rubles. Our baseline scenario for November 2-6 is a weaker ruble compared to the end of the tax period, unless new strong factors emerge in its favor. The basis for this assessment is the change in demand and supply of the currency after October 28. Exporters need rubles before paying taxes, and they cover some of this need by selling foreign currency earnings. After the main payment date, this support may decrease. Analysts also point to this effect in a Kommersant review on October 28. At the same time, purchases of foreign exchange and gold according to the budget rule continue until November 6. The volume announced by the Ministry of Finance is 12.7 billion rubles per day before taking into account the corrective actions of the central bank. This maintains the demand for the currency even after the tax period. The ruble remains supported at a high rate of 14% per year. Savings in rubles earns interest, and expensive loans restrain spending, including on imports. Therefore, the end of tax payments in itself does not mean a sharp jump in the dollar. If export and sales profits remain high, the ruble may hold its ground. If the currency supply decreases and importer purchases increase, weakening will become more likely. Keep in mind that new foreign policy events can quickly change both scenarios. For those who have payments in dollars at the beginning of November, the budget sensitivity is as follows. For every $1000, a 1₽ increase in the exchange rate adds 1000₽ to expenses, excluding commissions. It is this amount that will have to be found in addition if the ruble weakens.