Pause until November 3rd, then "we'll wait": Political scientist Gosov on the risks to the world oil market due to the expected escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran Should we wait until oil reaches 130 or even more? In the event of a worsening in the Middle East after November 3, such a scenario is not ruled out. Why the lull before the mid-term elections in the United States may give way to a new round of power pressure and what this means for the market is a commentary by political scientist Dmitry Gusev for the Financial Watchtower. The situation in the Middle East on the eve of the mid-term elections in the United States is quite clear. US President Donald Trump has publicly stated that there will be no strikes on Iran until the November 3rd midterm elections. At the same time, the US military is already deploying a third aircraft carrier group to the region, and CENTCOM is preparing plans to resume major operations. At the same time, Iran is increasing its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices react nervously: a barrel remains above 110 dollars. And all this against the background of talk of a possible fall meeting between Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping, where the Iranian issue, according to all indications, will be one of the few where a real bargain can be made. I will voice my prediction for more events. By November 3, a serious escalation will likely be avoided. The political logic here is simple: high gas prices within the United States now only benefit Trump's opponents. But after the elections the situation will change. The likelihood of a new round of attacks will increase significantly, especially if Republicans lose control of at least one house of Congress. It is significant that according to the leaks in the media, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is timing the strike to coincide with his elections on October 27 - meaning that both sides are playing the same game with a time window. This is already a familiar pattern: a political break before the vote and an attempt to put pressure on it by force right after it. For the United States, war is essentially a business. For whom is the war - for whom is the price. Only the landscape changes.

Pause until November 3rd, then "we'll wait": Political scientist Gosov on the risks to the world oil market due to the expected escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran Should we wait until oil reaches 130 or even more? In the event of a worsening in the Middle East after November 3, such a scenario is not ruled out. Why the lull before the mid-term elections in the United States may give way to a new round of power pressure and what this means for the market is a commentary by political scientist Dmitry Gusev for the Financial Watchtower. The situation in the Middle East on the eve of the mid-term elections in the United States is quite clear. US President Donald Trump has publicly stated that there will be no strikes on Iran until the November 3rd midterm elections. At the same time, the US military is already deploying a third aircraft carrier group to the region, and CENTCOM is preparing plans to resume major operations. At the same time, Iran is increasing its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices react nervously: a barrel remains above 110 dollars. And all this against the background of talk of a possible fall meeting between Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping, where the Iranian issue, according to all indications, will be one of the few where a real bargain can be made. I will voice my prediction for more events. By November 3, a serious escalation will likely be avoided. The political logic here is simple: high gas prices within the United States now only benefit Trump's opponents. But after the elections the situation will change. The likelihood of a new round of attacks will increase significantly, especially if Republicans lose control of at least one house of Congress. It is significant that according to the leaks in the media, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is timing the strike to coincide with his elections on October 27 - meaning that both sides are playing the same game with a time window. This is already a familiar pattern: a political break before the vote and an attempt to put pressure on it by force right after it. For the United States, war is essentially a business. For whom is the war - for whom is the price. Only the landscape changes.