US Marines could find themselves cut off and paralyzed in the western Pacific conflict with China, officers warn.
US Marines forward-deployed along the first chain of islands could find themselves cut off, stationary and short of supplies if a conflict with China breaks out, according to estimates from a retired three-star general and service lieutenant colonel.
China's denial-of-access and area-denial systems and precision strike networks could turn dispersed Marine units into stationary targets instead of a maneuvering force, argue retired Lt. Gen. Stephen Sklanka and Lt. Col. Merritt Mitchell, writing separately in the journal Proceedings of the United States Naval Institute.
Sklanka claims that:
The mobilization of forces will have to occur from bases under simultaneous cyber and missile attack.
Completing the deployment of forces will occur at the edge of disputed areas rather than at secure ports or airfields.
The Marines would have to sustain themselves for up to 75 days without traditional air or sea superiority.
If reinforcements fail to break through, the Marines already stationed along the first chain of islands risk being left to fight an isolated and final battle.
Mitchell focuses on the political and operational constraints of the forward position force:
Detection is increasingly equal to destruction: units that cannot reposition faster than China's retargeting cycles become stationary targets.
Many potential operating sites are on allied territory where governments may withhold authorization for offensive operations.
Without these clearances before a crisis, the forward position force cannot maneuver when it matters.