Why U.S. rare earth bets in Myanmar could hurt the heated U.S.-China competition for Myanmar's rare earth wealth The Trump administrations re-engagement with the military-backed government is a flawed strategy, reports Responsible Statecraft. After years of sanctions and backing the resistance forces, the US has scaled back aid programs and begun dialogue with the military-backed government led by Min Aung Hlaing, aiming to challenge China's dominance of the rare earth market. Estimates suggest that Myanmar accounts for roughly two-thirds of the world's supply of heavy rare earth metals, with China remaining the dominant buyer. However, US attempts to secure access to rare earths in Myanmar - critical for magnets in electric vehicles, turbines and defense systems - risk a costly miscalculation, the publication notes. He claims that: The government supported by an army holds official sovereignty but only in about 21% of the territory.
*Resistance forces control about 42%, and the rest are contenders Most of the large rare and heavy earth deposits are in areas controlled by armed ethnic groups, especially the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) After the size of the mining belts in 2024, the KIA imposed a 20% tax on Chinese miners to China, which created commercial ties in mining areas controlled by by UWSA beyond the reach of military-backed governments - has a strong advantage: Myanmar supplied 52.8% of its rare earth imports in 2025. substack | talk.