2026 US midterm elections; who has the upper hand? According to the latest figures released as of Sunday, Nov. 1, the signs are generally in Democrats' favor: The party is ahead of Republicans in statewide House races and has a chance to seriously compete in several sensitive Senate races. According to Ferraro, however, recapturing the House of Representatives seems more likely for the Democrats than capturing the Senate; Because the Senate election map still weighs heavily in favor of Republicans, and the results of several states could determine the fate of this house.