The founder of the investment company Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, calculated how much the habit of living in debt costs Washington. The Treasury issues new bonds to cover the deficit and recoup money from old securities. But bondholders need cash payments, and future US taxes are already burdened with huge interest costs. Dalio published these calculations on October 13. Dalio explained: Paper wealth cannot be used directly to pay debts. A shareholder can be a millionaire by the price of the share, but if there is a payment to be made, he needs a buyer. In the US government bond market, a similar danger arises during refinancing: maturing securities must be replaced with new ones, and investors must be persuaded to provide capital again. By the end of September 2026, Dalio estimated, the US would have about $32 trillion of marketable Treasuries, up 8% from a year earlier. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the deficit for the fiscal year at nearly $2 trillion. With federal revenues around $5.4 trillion, expenditures reached $7.4 trillion. Washington borrowed nearly 37 cents for every dollar of revenue collected. A sudden halt in borrowing would force Washington to change spending. Dalio noticed another change: about half of the new issues are short-term Treasury bills. For buyers, such debt is convenient - the money is returned faster. For the state, it is a frequent entry into the market at current rates. The interest rate on the old long-term note is fixed, and the newly issued note is paid according to the new loan price. The Treasury increases the budget's dependence on current rates. In fiscal year 2026, the net interest on the debt was about $1.05 trillion. This is about 19.5% of the annual budget revenues. The principal payment of redeemed bonds is usually financed by issuing new securities, so it cannot be added entirely to spending through taxes.

The founder of the investment company Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, calculated how much the habit of living in debt costs Washington. The Treasury issues new bonds to cover the deficit and recoup money from old securities. But bondholders need cash payments, and future US taxes are already burdened with huge interest costs. Dalio published these calculations on October 13. Dalio explained: Paper wealth cannot be used directly to pay debts. A shareholder can be a millionaire by the price of the share, but if there is a payment to be made, he needs a buyer. In the US government bond market, a similar danger arises during refinancing: maturing securities must be replaced with new ones, and investors must be persuaded to provide capital again. By the end of September 2026, Dalio estimated, the US would have about $32 trillion of marketable Treasuries, up 8% from a year earlier. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the deficit for the fiscal year at nearly $2 trillion. With federal revenues around $5.4 trillion, expenditures reached $7.4 trillion. Washington borrowed nearly 37 cents for every dollar of revenue collected. A sudden halt in borrowing would force Washington to change spending. Dalio noticed another change: about half of the new issues are short-term Treasury bills. For buyers, such debt is convenient - the money is returned faster. For the state, it is a frequent entry into the market at current rates. The interest rate on the old long-term note is fixed, and the newly issued note is paid according to the new loan price. The Treasury increases the budget's dependence on current rates. In fiscal year 2026, the net interest on the debt was about $1.05 trillion. This is about 19.5% of the annual budget revenues. The principal payment of redeemed bonds is usually financed by issuing new securities, so it cannot be added entirely to spending through taxes.