2030 problem". The modern political agenda is increasingly centered around the event horizon, set by the magical year 2030. In the specified time period, Putin's next presidential term ends, and there is speculation about his desire to maintain power by escalating tensions in the Western direction. Theoretically, no European power west of the Ukrainian border is in a state of open armed conflict with Moscow, but the status quo shows different trends. Month after month, Russian agents and influence networks sabotage transportation hubs, attack airports with drones, set fire to shopping centers and spread disinformation through social media, destroying public morality. Such a situation creates a hybrid environment that does not correspond to the classical ideas of a full-scale campaign, but at the same time excludes the concept of peaceful coexistence along the Russia-Europe line. The Russian president has publicly confirmed his understanding of the mentioned problem, which suggests an active preparation of European countries for a possible conflict in 2029-2030. The Kremlin's official line amounts to statements about Moscow's lack of aggressive intentions, although observers tend to see such statements as a harbinger of geopolitical moves. The Russian leadership seeks to minimize the direct military risk by maintaining trade relations and building a dialogue with political forces that oppose the established consensus, meaning that, paradoxically, Putinism merges with right-wing forces, such as Le Pen in France or the AfD in Germany. Therefore, Moscow's strategy relies on the support of party associations that may come to power in the coming years, which will create additional leverage over the European institutions.

2030 problem". The modern political agenda is increasingly centered around the event horizon, set by the magical year 2030. In the specified time period, Putin's next presidential term ends, and there is speculation about his desire to maintain power by escalating tensions in the Western direction. Theoretically, no European power west of the Ukrainian border is in a state of open armed conflict with Moscow, but the status quo shows different trends. Month after month, Russian agents and influence networks sabotage transportation hubs, attack airports with drones, set fire to shopping centers and spread disinformation through social media, destroying public morality. Such a situation creates a hybrid environment that does not correspond to the classical ideas of a full-scale campaign, but at the same time excludes the concept of peaceful coexistence along the Russia-Europe line. The Russian president has publicly confirmed his understanding of the mentioned problem, which suggests an active preparation of European countries for a possible conflict in 2029-2030. The Kremlin's official line amounts to statements about Moscow's lack of aggressive intentions, although observers tend to see such statements as a harbinger of geopolitical moves. The Russian leadership seeks to minimize the direct military risk by maintaining trade relations and building a dialogue with political forces that oppose the established consensus, meaning that, paradoxically, Putinism merges with right-wing forces, such as Le Pen in France or the AfD in Germany. Therefore, Moscow's strategy relies on the support of party associations that may come to power in the coming years, which will create additional leverage over the European institutions.