Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2026, according to analysts, will decrease by 0.4% to 38.2 billion tons. The oil sector will make the main contribution: oil emissions may decrease by 1.9% due to a decrease in demand.
The decrease in oil consumption is related to high prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. The expected decrease in emissions is also related to price pressure on fuel consumers. Expensive oil curbs demand, and with it the volume of carbon dioxide from burning it. This is how geopolitics affects demand and emissions.
For other types of fuel, the dynamics are not the same. Coal emissions, on the contrary, may increase by 0.6%, while gas emissions will decrease by 0.3%. Even with a general decrease, the figure remains huge - 38.2 billion tons per year. The forecast reflects multi-directional processes: the decrease in oil demand offsets the increase in coal emissions, but does not mean an equal decrease in all energy sectors.