The Accounting Chamber of Russia doubts whether inflation can be reduced to the 4% target by the end of 2027. At the end of the draft financial plan, the department noted the risks of price acceleration. Exceeding the target also affects government spending.
Among the main risks are the weakening of the ruble, the resumption of imports, changes in tariffs and increased consumer demand. A weaker national currency makes overseas supplies more expensive, and increased regulated charges can directly increase costs for citizens and businesses. Growing demand is also putting pressure on prices.
If inflation slows less than expected, the Bank of Russia will have less room to cut interest rates. For the federal budget, this means the likelihood of additional costs for linking social benefits and servicing the public debt. Therefore, the 4% forecast is important not only as a benchmark for prices, but also as a condition on which budgetary spending and monetary policy depend.