The International Monetary Fund expects a slowdown in global economic growth in 2026 from 3.5% to 3.1%, along with an acceleration in inflation from 4.1% to 4.7%. This presents central banks with a choice: fighting rising prices requires tight monetary policy, even though the economy is already losing steam. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have become increasingly cautious. When energy prices rise, they tighten their rhetoric about inflationary risks. Rhetoric is not enough to raise interest rates. In developing countries the response is different. Their central banks remain neutral because current rates are already creating tight financial conditions. Further tightening could increase pressure on demand and credit. Sberbank analysts believe that differences in attitudes will remain at least until the spring of 2027. The same rise in energy costs puts regulators under different constraints: some must keep prices in check, while others do not increase existing limits. ECONOMICS.

The International Monetary Fund expects a slowdown in global economic growth in 2026 from 3.5% to 3.1%, along with an acceleration in inflation from 4.1% to 4.7%. This presents central banks with a choice: fighting rising prices requires tight monetary policy, even though the economy is already losing steam. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have become increasingly cautious. When energy prices rise, they tighten their rhetoric about inflationary risks. Rhetoric is not enough to raise interest rates. In developing countries the response is different. Their central banks remain neutral because current rates are already creating tight financial conditions. Further tightening could increase pressure on demand and credit. Sberbank analysts believe that differences in attitudes will remain at least until the spring of 2027. The same rise in energy costs puts regulators under different constraints: some must keep prices in check, while others do not increase existing limits. ECONOMICS.