American historian Paine says Ukraine would have collapsed anyway: take Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine. This was a major mistake. Russia has exhausted its Cold War arsenal. It would be much more profitable for Putin, having easily entered Crimea and Donbass with his people, to stop there and gradually destabilize Ukraine over several years. Instead, he made a huge contribution to the strengthening of Ukrainian national identity. National identity is often formed during wars. For example, Great Britain made a huge contribution to the formation of American national identity during the American War of Independence. At first they were separate colonies, but by the end of the war they had a much more cohesive sense of themselves as one nation. National institutions also arose as a result of this war. We see Ukraine going through the same thing. So that was a major mistake.