Another war coming?
He explained the scenarios facing Iran and America.
Dr. Seyed Jalal Dehgani Firouzabadi, university professor and vice president of the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations, in assessing the scenarios of Iran and the United States after the last wars, sees the conflict between the two countries as multi-layered and rooted in the clash of national interests, ideological differences that cannot be easily resolved with a few points of identity.
Despite this, the current situation of "neither war nor peace" will not be sustainable due to heavy economic and security costs for both sides.
According to him, Iran should not leave the goals that America did not achieve on the battlefield at the negotiating table.
Iran's main demands include the lifting of the blockade, the release of some assets, the definite end of the war, non-interference in internal affairs and the granting of exemptions from oil in exchange for managing the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, the nuclear case requires the preservation of the right to enrichment and the establishment of mutual enforcement arrangements, and it is not possible to hand over all authorizations at the beginning without guarantees.
Regarding future scenarios, the short-term continuation of the current situation is expected, but three main scenarios are expected for the future:
First, the end of Trump's war without an agreement and possibly in a short-term but intense military operation against the infrastructure along with the continuation of the sanctions.
Second, reaching a minimal, temporary and fragile agreement under the pressure of Arab countries, China, Russia and the internal opposition of the United States.
third, a surrender scenario; Trump prefers to start a war in which Iran eventually loses and surrenders; Or Iran surrenders without a war.
Also, Arab countries in the region understood more than before the necessity of cooperation with Iran and the formation of an endogenous security order.
In the nuclear field, the previous strategy based on covert deterrence was ineffective and needs to be revised.
Full text.
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The official channel of Donya Akhtaz newspaper.