METR Estimates Artificial Intelligence Accelerates Model Development at Anthropite by 2x From August to October, several METR employees worked within Anthropite with increased access to internal data. Their goal was to assess how much the growth of internal model capabilities has accelerated, and how much of that acceleration is due to AI. The results were as follows: - The rate at which Anthropic improves its models doubled by October 2026 compared to the period from March 2024 to October 2025. The estimate is approximate, in general, the range is 1.3-3 times. The main indicator that confirms this is AECI, Epoch AI's internal version of the Capability Index. Since October 2025, it has grown 1.9 times faster than before. That is, over the past year, Anthropic has made roughly the same progress as the previous two. At the same time, about 80% of the current acceleration is due to the use of artificial intelligence in research and development. On average, the employees themselves estimate that artificial intelligence speeds up their work by about half. In loose surveys, individual scores went from 1.2x for the Claude 3.7 Sonnet to 12x for the latest in-house model (12x equals "doing in a day what previously took almost two weeks"). —. METR believes the acceleration may continue. They found no clear restrictions on it, at least for next year. There is no emphasis on algorithms, calculations or data.

METR Estimates Artificial Intelligence Accelerates Model Development at Anthropite by 2x From August to October, several METR employees worked within Anthropite with increased access to internal data. Their goal was to assess how much the growth of internal model capabilities has accelerated, and how much of that acceleration is due to AI. The results were as follows: - The rate at which Anthropic improves its models doubled by October 2026 compared to the period from March 2024 to October 2025. The estimate is approximate, in general, the range is 1.3-3 times. The main indicator that confirms this is AECI, Epoch AI's internal version of the Capability Index. Since October 2025, it has grown 1.9 times faster than before. That is, over the past year, Anthropic has made roughly the same progress as the previous two. At the same time, about 80% of the current acceleration is due to the use of artificial intelligence in research and development. On average, the employees themselves estimate that artificial intelligence speeds up their work by about half. In loose surveys, individual scores went from 1.2x for the Claude 3.7 Sonnet to 12x for the latest in-house model (12x equals "doing in a day what previously took almost two weeks"). —. METR believes the acceleration may continue. They found no clear restrictions on it, at least for next year. There is no emphasis on algorithms, calculations or data.