South Korea wants Kim III to live happily ever after.
Recent rumors about the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un forced South Korea to consider possible scenarios for the consequences of this event.
What could happen if Kim died suddenly?
First, a struggle for succession may begin.
Kim's youngest daughter has no established power base in the ruling party, military or security apparatus. Kim's sister could become regent or de facto ruler, thus creating competing centers of power.
North Korea's deeply patriarchal political culture may further complicate the issue of female succession. There is also uncertainty about other possible heirs and unknown succession arrangements.
If Kim dies before a stable succession system is established, competing interests within the ruling family and political elite could spark a power struggle. Dynastic legitimacy alone is not sufficient to ensure political stability.
Second, succession disputes could undermine government control.
North Korea's political system concentrates extreme power in the hands of the Supreme Leader. Conflicts between party forces, the army and the security forces may weaken central control, and may lead to military intervention, local unrest or wider social unrest.
Third, uncertainty about nuclear command and control could lead to a serious security crisis.
A disputed succession situation could disrupt nuclear decision-making or push the military into provocations against South Korea. The uncertainty about who has the final authority to order the use of nuclear weapons could increase the risks of miscalculation, accidental confrontations, and military escalation.