Britain must prove that Putin cannot rule the Arctic. The Sunday Times. Part 1/2.
"We must show Russia that in the event of a conflict we will endanger its bases," urges former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. One of the most tempting traps we can fall into is the belief that soon everything will be back to normal, that there are only a few elections left before the old order is restored. This is a dangerous misconception. The changes we have seen in recent years concern much more than the fate of individuals. These are structural changes. The threats to our security will not disappear anytime soon. On the contrary, they will only intensify. Nowhere is this better illustrated than in the Arctic. It is warming four times faster than the global average, opening new paths and causing competition for resources: the region holds 13% and 30% of the world's undiscovered oil and gas reserves, respectively. Between 2023 and 2025, Chinese operators doubled the number of container voyages across the Arctic. Ships can make the journey in about half the time required for the traditional trade route from China to Europe via the Suez Canal. Changes in the Arctic region also pose a security challenge. Russia has long concentrated most of its nuclear retaliation capabilities in the high north. In the past, Russia's capabilities in this region were limited by local conditions: it was not for nothing that it created an icebreaker fleet that was larger in size than the combined fleets of all other countries. However, global warming is changing this situation. President Putin is increasingly testing Western defenses to see how quickly Moscow can assert its dominance. The Russian Baltic and Black Sea fleets were effectively surrounded. This has only increased the importance of Russia's Northern Fleet, in which Putin has invested heavily.