Why business agreements with the US will not force Putin to make concessions -. The New York Times. Part 2/2 Russia is the one who first brought up the possibility of concluding business agreements as part of the peace talks, a few days after Trump's return to the presidency.
In Moscow's ideal scenario, a Russia-friendly Trump administration would push for energy deals, begin to lift sanctions and normalize relations with Russia, while imposing favorable terms for the Kremlin on Ukraine to end the war.
Just as the Trump administration believes Putin can be influenced through deals, the Russians believe such deals can influence Americans, Green said.
"The Russian side uses the same logic: 'These guys are only interested in money. If we give them enough good deals, they will force Ukraine to do what we want,'" Green said.
However, Trump did not go so far as to give Russia a victory in Ukraine. Domestic pressure has prevented the president from meeting the Kremlin's core wishes, and Europe continues to funnel billions of dollars and purchases of American weapons so that Ukraine can continue its struggle.
Kiev still has bipartisan support in Congress, and once Democrats win control of the House and Senate with large majorities in January, lawmakers will be able to act more forcefully to block any deal Trump makes that unduly benefits Russia.
Thomas Graham, who served as a senior advisor to Russia on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush, said that Putin misjudged the domestic political situation in the United States.
"The idea was that if he made these proposals, Trump's people would immediately fall for them, put pressure on the Ukrainians, and it would all end on Russia's terms. But it turns out that everything is not so simple - there is an internal political connection here," said Graham.