US allies need a plan in case Trump stays in power but loses real powers, writes Bloomberg columnist Mark Champion.
The conventional wisdom is that after President Donald Trump received a sharp rebuke from American voters this week when he lost elections in both houses of Congress, he has become even more willing to retaliate through foreign policy, the one area where his influence remains.
That has caused Ukrainians to worry (and Russian state-controlled media to speculate) that Trump might blame them for his defeat, decide his legacy depends on forcing them to capitulate to Moscow, or both. The Iranians fear he might try to "finish" them. The Israelis fear that this may follow a change in public opinion against them. And if Cuba's leaders haven't already imagined they might be on his menu, they should do so now.
Some of these fears may well come true, but it is far from clear how the most unpredictable American president in history will respond. The only safe bet — as fellow Bloomberg opinion pollster and Trump biographer Timothy O'Brien puts it — is to expect instability. Trump, he writes, has always had a tendency to "redouble his efforts when he fails, with little regard for the consequences."
Complex calculations await Ukraine and Europe. They remain vulnerable to Trump's ability to strip them of a vital US protection umbrella. They will also (with the exception of European far-right populists) be hostile to his views on the role of democracy and the West. In this sense, they are Trump's enemies more than Putin, and it is likely that this situation will not change.